If Apple isn't building the desktop equivalent of the App Store right now, I'll eat my hat. No, I'll eat all of my hats.
Software on the desktop isn't dead because no one wants it, it's dead because it's too hard to find or too expensive. The internet is not a distribution model! Do you feel safe downloading things from some random website you googled?
Linux has known this for years. That's one of the reasons that working with linux was so appealing to me. If you need a bit of software you just search for it. Or a library to write software with. God it was nice.
Games, too, have had this figured out for a while now. For as long as internet speeds have been sufficient to download movies on demand, the market has been ripe for an online distribution system for each platform. Or, knuth-willing, some that cover multiple platforms. But I'm not sure that without corporate backing there is anyone who would have the digital chutzpa to create such a thing and make it truly cross-platform.
Microsoft may be on track too, but I don't know that they've realized the compelling story that a real software distribution system offers.
This is great for software developers. Prepare to write more software than ever before, to a larger audience than ever before!